The SWS Exit Poll – 10 May 2010 Elections

UPDATE:

THE PERCENTAGES OF OF AQUINO AND ESTRADA BARELY CHANGED.  HOWEVER BINAY LEADS ROXAS, 40.7% VS. 38.3%.  [SEE http://www.sws.org.ph.]  PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOWED THEM EARLIER TIED AT 40%.

WITH STILL 10% OF CLUSTERED PRECINCTS AWAITED AT COMELEC, THE ERROR MARGINS OF THE EXIT POLL RESULTS, WHEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT,  INDICATE A CLOSE CONTEST DOWN TO THE WIRE.  HOWEVER A BINAY WIN MAY HAVE A BIGGER SPREAD THAN A ROXAS WIN.

——————————————————————————–

Social Weather Stations, in cooperation with the School of Government

of Ateneo de Manila University, conducted a national exit poll sponsored

by the PLDT-SMART Foundation, Inc., for exclusive broadcast by the

Associated Broadcasting Company (TV5), called the “TV5-SWS EXIT

POLL.” The partial [underscoring mine] results for the national positions

of President and Vice-President, from the partial sample as of May 11,

1:00 a.m. and aired on TV5 as of 7a.m. today, are shown below.  It will

be a long week/month for Jojo Binay and Mar Roxas.  The exit poll puts both

at 40 percent.

The following information is available at http://www.sws.org.ph

———————————————————————————————–

11 May 2010

The TV5-SWS 2010 Exit Poll

I. THE VOTES

TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL

PHILIPPINES (Partial sample as of May 11, 1:00 a.m., aired on

TV5 as of 7a.m.)
(n=22,398)

Table 1. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT? (in %, partial)
Exit Poll
AQUINO
44
ESTRADA
25
VILLAR 13
TEODORO 11
VILLANUEVA 3
GORDON 2
ACOSTA
1
MADRIGAL
0.2
DE LOS REYES 0.2
PERLAS 0.1
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 1
“Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR? (SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)”
Table 1.a VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)
TOTAL RP ABC D E
AQUINO 44 48 44 36
ESTRADA 25 19 27 32
VILLAR’ 13 11 14 16
TEODORO 11 14 8 9
VILLANUEVA 4 3 3
GORDON
2 2 1 2
ACOSTA
1 1 1 1
MADRIGAL
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
DE LOS REYES
0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
PERLAS
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 1 1 1 1
Table 1.b VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)
TOTAL RP NONE/ SOME ELEM ELEM GRAD/ SOME HS HS GRAD/ SOME VOC/VOC/ SOME COLLEGE COLLEGE GRAD/ POST CAN’T ANSWER/ REFUSED
AQUINO
44 36 41 45 50 43
ESTRADA
25 34 29 25 13 22
VILLAR 13 16 15 13 11 12
TEODORO
11 8 9 9 16 10
VILLANUEVA
3 3 3 4 4 3
GORDON
2 0.4 2 2 4 0.4
ACOSTA 1 2 0.4 1 0.4 1
MADRIGAL
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4
DE LOS REYES
0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1
PERLAS 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
CAN’T ANSWER/ REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 8
Table 1.c VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)
TOTAL RP CATHOLIC IGLESIA NI CRISTO ISLAM OTHER CHRIS-
TIANS
OTHER NON-CHRIS-
TIANS
REFUSED
AQUINO
44 44 79 46 28 26 43
ESTRADA
25 26 9 15 25 28 22
VILLAR,
13 14 4 27 13 18 10
TEODORO
11 11 3 6 12 13 10
VILLANUEVA
3 1 0.5 4 18 13 5
GORDON
2 2 3 1 2 1 1
ACOSTA
1 1 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 1
MADRIGAL
0.2 0.2 1 0.1 0.1 0 0.5
DE LOS REYES
0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0 1
PERLAS
0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0.2
CAN’T ANSWER/ REFUSED 1 1 1 0.4 1 0 7
Table 2. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS VICE-PRESIDENT?
Partial Exit Poll %
BINAY
40
ROXAS
40
LEGARDA
10
FERNANDO
3
MANZANO
2
YASAY
2
CHIPECO
0.4
SONZA 0.2
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 3
“Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR? (SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)”
Table 2.a CHOICE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Column %)
TOTAL RP AQUINO ESTRADA VILLAR TEODORO OTHERS
ROXAS 40 67 12 24 28 15
BINAY 40 25 73 37 40 27
LEGARDA 10 4 9 30 9 7
OTHERS 10 4 6 8 22 51
100 100 100 100 100 100
Table 2.b VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)
TOTAL RP ABC D E
BINAY 40 40 41 41
ROXAS
40 43 40 33
LEGARDA
10 7 10 14
FERNANDO
3 4 2 3
MANZANO
2 1 2 2
YASAY
2 2 1 1
CHIPECO
0.4 0.2 0.4 1
SONZA
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 3 1 2 5
Table 2.c VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)
TOTAL RP NONE/ SOME ELEM ELEM GRAD/ SOME HS HS GRAD/ SOME VOC/VOC/ SOME COLLEGE COLLEGE GRAD/ POST CAN’T ANSWER/ REFUSED
BINAY
40 39 39 43 38 35
ROXAS
40 32 38 40 46 36
LEGARDA
10 14 12 9 7 9
FERNANDO
3 2 4 3 5 3
MANZANO
2 3 2 1 1 2
YASAY
2 2 1 2 2 1
CHIPECO
0.4 1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1
SONZA
0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 1
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 3 7 3 2 1 13
Table 2.d VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)
TOTAL RP CATHOLIC IGLESIA NI CRISTO ISLAM OTHER CHRIS-
TIANS
OTHER NON-CHRIS-
TIANS
REFUSED
BINAY
40 42 13 45 42 44 35
ROXAS
40 40 75 17 30 27 36
LEGARDA
10 9 4 28 9 14 9
FERNANDO
3 3 3 2 4 4 3
MANZANO
2 2 1 2 1 1 2
YASAY
2 0.4 1 3 9 6 2
CHIPECO
0.4 0.4 1 2 0.2 0 1
SONZA
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.02 0.1 0 0.4
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 3 2 2 3 4 3 12

II. THE VOTERS

TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL
PHILIPPINES (Partial sample as of May 10, 9:30 p.m.; aired on TV5 as of May 10, 11p.m.)
(n=12,078)

Table 3. IS PLATFORM OR PERSONALITY THE MAIN REASON FOR YOUR CHOICE OF CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT?
Partial Exit Poll %
PLATFORM 44
PERSONALITY 47
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 10
“Question. PLATAPORMA po ba o PAGKATAO ang inyong pangunahing dahilan sa pagpili ng kandidato sa pagka-Presidente?
Is PLATFORM or PERSONALITY the main reason for your choice of candidate for President?”
Table 4. WHEN DID YOU DECIDE ON YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?
Partial Exit Poll %
ONLY NOW 13
MAY 1-9 14
IN APRIL 9
IN MARCH 7
IN FEBRUARY OR EARLIER 51
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 6
“Question. Kailan po kayo nakapagdesisyon sa inyong boto sa pagka-Presidente?
When did you decide on your vote for president?”
Table 5. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, WAS VOTING EASIER OR HARDER FOR YOU NOW?
Partial Exit Poll %
EASIER NOW 58
SAME AS BEFORE 8
MORE DIFFICULT NOW 26
FIRST TIME TO VOTE 3
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 5
Question. Kumpara sa mga nakaraang halalan, ang pagboto po ba ninyo ay MAS MADALI o MAS MAHIRAP ngayon?
Compared to previous elections, was voting easier or harder for you now?
Table 6. UNDER THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF GOVERNANCE…?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL GET BETTER 61
WILL BE THE SAME AS NOW 15
WILL GET WORSE 2
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 22
Question. Sa ilalim ng susunod na administrasyon, masasabi ba ninyo na ang mangyayari sa kalidad ng pamamahala ay …?
Under the next administration, do you think the quality of governance …?
Table 7. IN THE COMING 12 MONTHS WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOUR QUALITY OF LIFE…?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL BE BETTER 52
SAME 24
WILL BE WORSE 1
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 23
Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ba ng inyong pamumuhay ay … (READ OUT)?In the coming 12 months would you say that your quality of life… (READ OUT)?
Table 8. OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE ECONOMY OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL…?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL BE BETTER 55
SAME 20
WILL BE WORSE 2
CAN’T ANSWER/REFUSED 23
Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay … (READ OUT)?
Over the next 12 months, would you say that the economy of the Philippines will… (READ OUT)?

Background

Social Weather Stations, in cooperation with the School of Government of Ateneo de Manila University, conducted a national exit poll sponsored by the PLDT-SMART Foundation, Inc., for exclusive broadcast by the Associated Broadcasting Company (TV5), called the “TV5-SWS EXIT POLL.”

The TV5-SWS Exit Poll adheres to the requirements set by the Fair Election Act’s Section 5.5 on exit polls. This requires interviewers to (a) stay at least 50 meters away from polling centers, (b) wear distinctive TV5-SWS Exit Poll clothing and carry TV5-SWS Exit Poll identification cards; and (c) inform respondents that they may refuse to answer. The Act says that the results “may be announced after the closing of the polls on election day, and must clearly announce the total number of respondents, and the places where they were taken” and that the “announcement shall state that the same is unofficial and does not represent a trend.”

SWS previously conducted exit polls in the national elections of 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004. Those previous polls were all conducted on election-day, in the homes of a random sample of respondents who had already voted earlier in the day. Conducting an exit poll in homes rather than at polling locations is valid under the Guidelines for Exit Polls and Election Forecasts of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), written by the WAPOR Exit Poll Committee of which I was a member, and approved by the WAPOR Council in 2006.

This year, however, the TV5-SWS Exit Poll is conducted not in homes but at the polling centers, 50 meters away. This enables the interviews to be done, as in the developed countries, throughout the day. The interview results are transmitted to the SWS office in Quezon City, and processed to produce the exit poll results for broadcast on TV5 as soon as completed, and lawfully allowed.

SWS conducted the TV5-SWS Exit Poll with its own regular staff and a special complement of direct hires for added interviewing and data processing capacity. Starting in mid-2004, SWS has accomplished all field and data processing operations internally, without outsourcing.

The questionnaire for the TV5-SWS Exit Poll was designed in cooperation with the Ateneo School of Government (ASoG). In addition to asking about the votes for President, Vice-President and Senator, it has several question items, in addition to standard demographics (gender, age, education, socioeconomic class, religion, charismatic group, and home language) to enable substantive analysis of the 2010 vote. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll analysis will be done by SWS in cooperation with ASoG.

SWS is entirely responsible for the sampling of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll. The poll was conducted in 802 Voting Centers (VCs) nationwide, covering all provinces from Batanes to Tawi-Tawi, and chartered cities of the Philippines. The regional distribution of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll sample of VCs, after proportional allocation according to the official 2010 number of Registered Voters (RVs) in the said provinces and cities, is as follows:

NCR – 96
CAR – 15
Region I – 45
Region II – 31
Region III – 88
Region IV- A – 107
Region IV-B – 23
Region V – 44
Region VI – 62
Region VII – 62
Region VIII – 38
Region IX – 29
Region X – 38
Region XI – 40
Region XII – 32
ARMM – 30
CARAGA – 22

Within each province/city, the sample-VCs are chosen with probability proportional to their number of RVs. In each VC, SWS fielded normally two interviewers (sometimes one, if the VC is small); the total field group, including support staff, is over 1,800 persons. SWS has 110 encoding stations at its main office to accommodate the incoming interview reports.

The interviewers of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll have been trained to behave in a strictly non-partisan manner at all times. They are to approach voters to be interviewed at a steady pace throughout voting hours. They may not accept voters who volunteer to be interviewed. For the sake of privacy, interviewees’ names are not recorded; interviewees are given a thank-you card with the name of their interviewer. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll aims for an average of 40 interviews per VC, or a national sample of about 32,000 interviews. The national sampling error, though still to be ascertained, is expected to be below 1%.

The results of each VC are weighted by its present number of RVs, multiplied by the actual voting turnout percentage in the last presidential election year (2004), to progressively obtain provincial/city results, regional results, and national results. However, the voting results for national positions may be reported at the national level only, at which the sample is maximized; it is not necessary for an exit poll to reach conclusions about sub-jurisdictions.

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