ABS-CBN-Pulse Asia exit poll

Note: The Pulse Asia results differ from the SWS exit polls where Aquino got 44% and Estrada 25%, and Binay and Roxas both got 40%. [See http://www.sws.org.ph, or earlier post.]

Pulse Asia admitted though that there were less completed responses in Visayas, and class ABC [Roxas’ bailiwick] and more in Mindanao and class E [Binay’s].  All in all, completion rate was 63%.

The following information is obtained from <http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/05/11/10/aquino-binay-top-abs-cbn-pulse-asia-exit-poll&gt;.


Posted at 05/11/2010 9:56 PM | Updated as of 05/11/2010 10:15 PM

MANILA, Philippines (1st UPDATE) – Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III and PDP-Laban vice-presidential bet Jejomar Binay topped the results of the ABS-CBN-Pulse Asia exit polls for the presidential and vice-presidential elections.

Pulse Asia President Prof. Ronnie Holmes said Aquino got 41.4% of presidential preferences among 12,400 target respondents who voted in the May 10 polls nationwide. His closest rival, former president Joseph Estrada, only got 29.2%.

The other presidential bets are Manny Villar 16.0%, Gilbert Teodoro 8.8% and Eddie Villanueva 2.7%.

Sen. Richard Gordon (1%) and the rest of the tail enders–Vetallano Acosta (0.7%), Jamby Madrigal (0.3%), John Carlos de los Reyes (0.2%), Nicanor Perlas (0.2%)–got 1% and below.

In the vice-presidential race, Binay topped the race with 42.7% followed by Mar Roxas 37.4%, Loren Legarda 13.7%, Edu Manzano 2.5%, Bayani Fernando 2.4%, Perfecto Yasay 0.8%, Jay Sonza 0.3% and Dominador Chipeco 0.2%.

Thus, unlike in the exit poll of Social Weather Stations (SWS) where Binay and Roxas were tied at 40%, the ABS-CBN/Pulse Asia exit poll had Binay with a 5.3-percentage point lead over Roxas. (Click here for story.)

Luzon, Mindanao deliver for Binay; Visayas for Roxas

Metro Manila delivered a 20.5-percentage point margin for Binay (Binay: 53.9%; Roxas: 33.4%).

The rest of Luzon delivered an 11.6-percentage margin lead for Binay (Binay: 45.8%; Roxas: 34.2%)

The Visayas region, where the Roxases come from, delivered a whopping 29.3-percentage point margin for the Capiz native (Roxas: 54.7%; Binay: 25.4%).

Mindanao, where the Estrada-Binay team has beaten all other tandems, delivered a 16.6-perdentage point margin for Binay (Binay: 47.3%; Roxas: 30.7%).

Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia chief research fellow, said Binay got higher votes among the Class D and E respondents while Roxas got more votes from the Class ABC respondents.

“Mas mataas ang voter preference ni Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay sa mas mahirap o sa Class E respondents. Dun malaki ang lead niya. Lumalamang din siya sa Class D habang si Roxas ay lamang sa Class ABC,” she told ABS-CBN.

Low completion rate

Tabunda said the 2010 exit poll of ABS-CBN-Pulse Asia had 63% completed interviews, which is lower than the 75% completion rate in the 2007 exit poll. She said many of the field interviewers encountered locked homes, primarily because a lot of voters were stuck in long queues at the polling precincts.

She said respondents were usually approached inside their homes, given a sample ballot and asked to fill up the ballot according to how they voted.

TNS Managing Director Gary de Ocampo said another challenge faced by field interviewers was the high number of respondents who refused to answer the ballots “probably because they were already tired.”

Tabunda said the exit poll had low completion rates from NCR respondents and from Class A,B,C. “We had more Class E respondents participate in the exit polls,” she said, adding that they had to balance the number of respondents to get a more statistically representative sample.

She said the new exit poll also had more willing respondents from Mindanao rather than Visayas, which is a possible bailiwick of Binay. The margin of error for the exit poll was (+)(-)2.

Pulse Asia also said 86% of Iglesia ni Cristo voters interviewed for the exit poll voted for Aquino and Roxas after the INC leadership endorsed the two. The INC vote is around 3% of the electorate, equivalent to at least 1.5 million votes.


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