Here are some of my notes on this survey. I don’t question how the interviews were accomplished in 2 days and processing in a couple more days. SWS has been in this business long enough to carry out sound operations in a jiffy. Perhaps if its accuracy is an issue and need to be proven, Senator Noynoy can motor to these key areas as part of a thanksgiving trip to the people who condoled with his family but could not come to Manila and gauge the public support/acclaim. Anyone could question my notes but I put these up for discussion purposes.
For all you know, these may be valid observations. I compared the NCR results from the Serge Osmena commissioned survey of September 5-6 with the Pulse Asia survey of May 4-17. These have similarities: same area, same sample size of 300, similar questions:
SWS (September 5-6)
Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as President of the Philippines if elections were held today? [Aquino, Villar, Estrada, Escudero, De Castro]?
Pulse Asia (May 4-17)
Of the people in this list, whom would you vote for the President of the Philippines if the election were held today and they were Presidential candidates? [Villar, Estrada, Escudero, De Castro, Roxas, …and Legarda, Binay, Lacson, and others who got 0 or 1 percent]
Comparative NCR Results (in percent): September 5-6 ***** May 4-17
AQUINO —> 50 ***** 0
VILLAR —> 14 ***** 14
ESTRADA —> 15 ***** 13
ESCUDERO —> 14 ***** 26
DE CASTRO —> 5 ***** 15
ROXAS —> 0 ***** 7
OTHERS —> 0 ***** 24
DON’T KNOW/NONE —> 2 ***** 2
If my premises can be accepted as valid/passable. AQUINO got his votes from ESCUDERO , DE CASTRO , and ROXAS , and the others . Estrada got more . Assigning the votes to AQUINO from the others in the May list (such as Legarda, Binay, Lacson ..and excluded in the September list) may be questionable but then if the respondent felt strongly for them, s/he could have refused or answered NONE from among the September list of 5 names.
By the way, the SWS survey of June 19-22, where VILLAR got 33 percent, had a larger sample of 7 thousand but a differently formulated question
Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to 3 names……[and there was no list of names to prompt the respondents.]