Pulse Asia: Preferences for Presidentiables – April Update

[August to December 2009, January to April 2010 Surveys]

A. Trends

Table 1. Voters’ Shares of Selected Candidates, Surveys from August 09-April 10 (in %)
Selected Candidates	Aug	Oct	Aug to Oct	Dec	Oct to Dec	Jan	Dec to Jan	Feb	Jan to Feb	Mar	Feb to Mar	Apr	Mar to Apr
Aquino	–	44	+44	45	+1	37	-8	36	-1	37	+1	39	+2
Villar	25	19	-6	23	+4	35	+12	29	-6	25	-4	20	-5
Estrada	19	11	-8	19	+8	12	-7	18	+6	18	0	20	+2
Teodoro	0.2	2	+1.8	5	+3	5	0	7	+2	7	0	7	0
None/refused/undecided	3	4	+1	4	0	6	+2	6	0	9	+3	9	0

Notables

°         Villar continued to slide down [statistically] significantly to 20% since his high of 35% in January.  This is 2^nd to his lowest share, which was 19% in October, the first survey after Aquino entered the fray.

°         The undecideds remained at 9 percent.

Stables?

°         Aquino had the same [statistical] level of preference in January, February, March and April.

°         Estrada had the same [statistical] level of preference in February, March and April.

°         Teodoro had the same [statistical] level of preference in December, January, February, March and April.

B.  February to April 2010 changes: Breakdown of Voter’s preferences

[Pulse Asia has made available tables on voter’s preferences by location and socio-economic class for each of its surveys.

Table 2. Month-to-Month Changes in Voters’ Shares of Selected Candidates, February, March and April 2010 (in %)
	LOCATION					CLASS
Selected Candidates	RP	NCR	BAL LUZ	VIS	MIN	ABC	D	E
Aquino                 Feb-Mar	1	2	0	2	-1	6	1	-2
Mar-Apr	2	-3	4	6	-1	-4	2	3
Villar                    Feb-Mar	-4	-7	-5	-8	4	-4	-3	-5
Mar-Apr	-5	-2	-5	-7	-7	-1	-6	-6
Estrada                 Feb-Mar	0	0	1	0	-2	1	-2	5
Mar-Apr	2	2	1	3	5	-1	4	0
Teodoro               Feb-Mar	0	-2	-1	3	0	-5	0	1
Mar-Apr	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
None/refused/undecided Feb-Mar	3	7	5	1	-2	0	4	1
Mar-Apr	0	1	-1	-2	1	4	-2	1

°         Aquino lost vote shares in NCR and class ABC. He gained significantly in Balance Luzon and the Visayas and class E.

°         Villar shares fell across locations and classes, though lesser in NCR and class ABC.

°         Estrada gained in NCR, the Visayas, and Mindanao and class D.

°         Teodoro gained in the Visayas.

°         The undecideds gained in Mindanao and class ABC.  There are less in Balance Luzon, the Visayas and class D.

Table 3. Undecided [/Refused/No Choice] Voters’ Shares, February, March and April 2010 (in %)
Feb-Mar, Mar-Apr	LOCATION					CLASS
None/refused/undecided	RP	NCR	BAL LUZ	VIS	MIN	ABC	D	E
Feb	6	3	8	7	4	8	6	6
Mar	9	10	13	8	2	8	10	7
Apr	9	11	12	6	3	12	8	8

There were

°         more undecideds in Luzon [NCR and Balance Luzon] and the Visayas;

°         less in Mindanao;

°         more undecideds in class ABC.  However it appears that the undecideds in classes D and E were still at significant levels to influence the outcomes for the 2^nd and 3^rd placer.

Except for the undecideds, it may be all over but the cheating and the PCOS machines.  By the way PCOS is also an acronym for polycystic ovary syndrome, which leads to infertility.  A very apt acronym for a machine which may plague our electoral exercise.