August to December 2009, January 2010 Surveys
| Aug 09 | Oct 09 | Aug-Oct | Dec 09 | Oct-Dec | Jan 10 | Dec-Jan | |
| Aquino | – | 44 | +44 | 45 | +1 | 37 | -8 |
| Villar | 25 | 19 | -6 | 23 | +4 | 35 | +12 |
| Estrada | 19 | 11 | -8 | 19 | +8 | 12 | -7 |
| Teodoro | 0.2 | 2 | +1.8 | 5 | +3 | 5 | 0 |
| De Castro | 16 | 4 | -12 | – | – | – | – |
| Escudero | 12 | 13 | +1 | – | – | – | – |
Pulse Asia has an interesting table on reasons for presidential preference. The respondent is asked ‘Bakit po ninyo iboboto si _____ bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas?’ The findings from the following table may be referenced with the above summary.
| Reasons for preference | May 09 | Aug 09 | Oct 09 | Dec 09 | PossibleLink* | Jan 10 |
| 1. Tumutulong, matulungin sa ofw/ibang sector [AID/ASSISTANCE] | 6.6 | 11.8 | 12 | 11 | Villar, Estrada | 11 |
| 2. May nagawa, maraming nagawa [ACCOMPLISHMENTS] | 11.6 | 25.3 | 14 | 11 | Villar, Estrada | 16 |
| 2a. Magaling/maganda ang palakad, [GOVERNANCE/EXPERIENCE] | 4 | 8 | Villar, Estrada | 6 | ||
| 3. Hindi corrupt, walang kurakot, malinis [NOT CORRUPT] | 7.1 | 6.3 | 21.2 | 21 | Aquino | 24 |
| 4. Mabait, mabuti, reputasyon ng pamilya [GOOD MAN/FAMILY] | 5.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 12 | Aquino | 9 |
| 5. Makamasa, pagtingin sa mahirap, galling sa hirap [PRO-POOR] | 27.3 | 20.3 | 12.2 | 27 | Estrada, Villar | 24 |
* Conjectural
It appears that #3 and #4 are still responsible for Aquino to remain on top/statistical tie for the lead. His infomercials capitalized on these; although the percentage of ‘coming from a good family’ has slightly decreased. It appears that these are his core votes, some 33 percent, over the past two months.
I noted earlier that probably some respondents also perceive Aquino as having traits #2, 2a and 5 and that this has to be developed further.
Apparently his campaign has not developed these and so far, as of the January survey, has failed to show his accomplishments, experience and being pro-poor. It appears that some of his shares attributed to these factors have gone to Villar.
Villar appears to have similarly gotten chunks of the shares of Estrada, who is on a pro-poor [#5], ‘been-there-done-that’ [#2, #2a] platform.
By and large, people ascribe Villar’s surge in the polls to his tremendous ad spending, as the nearly ubiquitous TV and radio ads touting his humble background, his empathy with the poor and his promise to do for the rest of the country what he managed to do for himself and family, attest. This is borne out in the latest advertising spend study conducted by Nielsen.
Villar ranked No. 14 among the Top 20 national advertisers (in print and broadcast) tracked by Nielsen during the period October-December 2009. Villar was the only individual on the list, dominated by marketers of consumer products, and he outranked (and therefore outspent) even top advertisers like Monde Nissin Corp. (makers of biscuits), Herbs and Nature Corp. (which manufactures toiletry products), Mead Johnson (infant formula), Kraft Food (dairy products), Asia Brewery and San Miguel Brewery (both beer marketers).
In those three months alone, Villar spent P543 million, a far cry from the P83 million he spent in the previous year. The amount represents an increase of 551 percent in ad spending, the highest increase among the Top 20 advertisers. http://politics.inquirer.net/view.php?db=1&article=20100204-251283
Aquino campaign manager Florencio “Butch” Abad said he saw another Nielsen report showing that Villar spent P70 million from January 22 to 24 while the Aquino camp spent only P8 million. http://politics.inquirer.net/view.php?db=1&article=20100203-251140
Indeed, Villar has the more effective, strategic and heavily-resourced marketing campaign. Check it out, – a vote for a Villar presidency, classified among the ranks of consumer perishables.
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